The wafer market saw lackluster transactions, while cell supply continued to tighten [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

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SMM May 30 Report:

Electrode

Price

This week, prices for some specifications in the electrode market continued to face downward pressure. The quoted price for ordinary power carbon electrodes with a diameter of 960-1100mm was 6,200-6,400 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt week-on-week. The quoted price for ordinary power graphite electrodes with a diameter of 960-1100mm was 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt week-on-week.

Supply

Hindered by sluggish shipments, high inventory levels, and declining raw material prices, most producers initiated production cuts or suspensions, currently focusing on inventory depletion. Additionally, support from the raw material side weakened, with raw material prices falling sharply since May. However, due to the time lag between the electrode production cycle and raw material procurement, the cost collapse effect was transmitted to current selling prices with a lag, leading producers into a loss-making situation of producing with high-cost raw materials and selling finished products at low prices.

Demand

Both lines are weak. The operating rate of downstream silicon plants remains low, and steel mills are also in a weak position due to shrinking steel profits. Purchases are only maintained for small, rigid-demand orders, with strong sentiment to drive down prices. Therefore, in the short term, the electrode market is expected to remain in the doldrums.

Silicon Metal

Price

This week, spot silicon metal prices continued to weaken. Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was priced at 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt. The main futures contract continued to fall, closing at 7,215 yuan/mt, down 665 yuan/mt WoW, or 8.4%. The decline in futures prices led to a drop in the absolute price of silicon metal, with the center of silicon metal transaction prices moving downward.

Production:

In June, due to the production release from resumed capacity at major producers and marginal increases from newly commissioned capacity, silicon metal supply is expected to increase.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 589,000 mt on May 29, up 7,000 mt WoW. Among this, social general warehouses held 134,000 mt, up 4,000 mt WoW, and social delivery warehouses held 455,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), up 3,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Wafer

Price

The market price for N-type 18X wafers is 0.93-0.95 yuan/piece, and for N-type 210RN wafers, it is 1.05-1.1 yuan/piece. Prices remained largely stable this week, with low-price orders still present, mainly concentrated in large-volume orders.

Production

Domestic wafer production in May is estimated to be around 58GW, with multiple bases continuing to implement minor production cuts in June. However, the extent of production cuts at individual production bases was limited.

Inventory

This week, overall market transactions were sluggish. Wafer inventory levels did not change significantly, but there was a certain degree of destocking compared to inventory levels at the end of April.

Solar cell

Price

The price of high-efficiency PERC 182 solar cells (with an efficiency of 23.2% or above) was 0.275-0.295 yuan/W. Due to limited total demand, there were very few existing players, and export demand accounted for a relatively high proportion. There was no trading volume in the PERC 210 solar cell market.

The mainstream quotation for Topcon 183 solar cells (with an efficiency of 25% or above) was around 0.25-0.255 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price for Topcon 210RN solar cells was 0.265 yuan/W, with a quotation range of 0.265-0.27 yuan/W. The price of Topcon 210 solar cells was around 0.265-0.275 yuan/W. The market trends for different sizes diverged: orders for 183 cells decreased, and continuous inventory buildup forced transaction prices to decline. Orders for 210RN cells increased due to distributed demand, especially for high-efficiency cells, with prices stabilizing and recovering. It is expected that the divergence in market trends for different sizes will continue to widen.

The mainstream quotation for HJT 30% silver-coated copper (with an efficiency of 25% or above) was 0.34-0.35 yuan/W. Price adjustments are expected after the holiday. Overall, direct sales of HJT products are limited, with integrated manufacturers being self-sufficient.

Production

Global solar cell production reached 60-61 GW in May, representing a production cut of approximately 7.20% compared to April. Preliminary estimates suggest that the global production schedule for June will be 57-58 GW, with a 4-5% MoM decline. Solar cell supply continues to tighten due to weak demand.

Inventory

Module manufacturers adjusted their procurement needs, resulting in fewer orders. Solar cell plants adjusted their production schedules to control inventory levels, which increased by 25.01% WoW, with the growth rate shrinking by 51 percentage points compared to the previous week.

PV film

Price

PV-grade EVA

The price of PV-grade EVA was 10,100-10,400 yuan/mt. The domestic delivery-to-factory price of PV-grade POE was approximately 12,000-14,000 yuan/mt, with POE prices remaining stable for the time being.

PV film

Currently, the mainstream prices for PV films are as follows: 5.38-5.59 yuan/m² for 420 gsm transparent EVA film, 5.88-6.09 yuan/m² for 420 gsm white EVA film, 5.51-5.7 yuan/m² for 380 gsm EPE film, and 6.84-7.22 yuan/m² for 380 gsm POE film.

Production

In April, the production schedule for PV-grade EVA increased by 8.22% MoM, and the production schedule for PV film increased by 9.07% MoM.

Inventory

Currently, petrochemical companies have low inventory levels, and the pace of recent transactions for PV-grade EVA has slowed down.